Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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621 FXUS63 KDVN 170753 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 253 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in above normal temperatures continues into Saturday. - There continues to be lower confidence in the timing of rain chances late week into the weekend due to differences between the models. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 157 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure stretches from the New England coast westward into the Great Lakes at the surface and aloft. There are clear skies across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri early this morning. Temperatures at 2 AM range from 57 degrees at Macomb and Davenport to 70 degrees at Burlington. Quiet weather is forecast over the next 24 hours as eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri remains on the northwest side of a closed upper level low over the Carolinas. Expect sunny skies today with southeasterly winds of 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s. Clear skies are forecast tonight with low temperatures ranging from the lower 50s in far northwest Illinois to the lower 60s in far southeast Iowa and far northeast Missouri. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 157 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The 500 mb pattern will transition from southwesterly flow aloft as 500 mb ridging over the area finally breaks down allowing for a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS for late week into early next week. This will usher in more active weather Thursday night into early next week. Before that, 500 mb ridging will prevail and continue to bring quiet weather and above normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave passing to our northwest on Wednesday night into Thursday will allow for increasing clouds on Thursday morning, but think that the best lift and moisture will be well to our northwest leaving the forecast dry. On Thursday, 500 mb ridging across the Plains begins to break down resulting in amplified zonal flow across the CONUS with a series of shortwave moving across the area Friday night into early next week. However, there are timing and placement differences between the different model runs as well as between the GFS, ECWMF,and Canadian. This is resulting in widespread chances of showers and storms through the weekend into early next week. Additionally temperatures cool to near normal by Monday with high temperatures in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is brining quiet weather to eastern Iowa TAF sites. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Cousins