Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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414 FXUS63 KDVN 261715 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures through Monday followed by a brief cool down. - Remnants of Helene will miss most if not all of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The light winds and clear skies will bring the risk of another round of patchy fog through sunrise. Otherwise, quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight with above normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Friday through Monday Assessment...high confidence on above normal temperatures. Low confidence regarding rain chances. As expected, the trend with Helene`s remnants is to be a bit further south and east. Helene`s remnants will be absorbed by the cut off low with the surface low stalling south southeast of Paducah, KY before slowly moving east. As such, it appears that areas west of a Princeton, IL to Keokuk, IA line will remain dry. Areas east of this line `might` see some rain but probabilities of dry versus rain currently look to be 85/15. Once Helene makes landfall and is sampled by the more dense land observing networks, a more abrupt shift to the east with the rain chances is expected. The deterministic GFS and all GEFS members keep the entire area dry. The ICON model and ICON-EPS suggests the potential for some 15% pops late Friday night through Saturday evening east of a Sterling, IL to Keokuk, IA line. The CMC deterministic run keeps the entire area dry while some members of the CMCE suggest 20% pops over eastern Bureau and Putnam counties late Friday night through Saturday night. The ECMWF deterministic run brings a risk of rain as far west as a Freeport, IL to Keokuk, IA line late Friday night through Sunday. Most members of the EPS are dry but a few members bring a risk of rain as far west as a Sterling, IL to Keokuk, IA line. So, the model consensus is dry through Friday evening. After that there is a 20-30 percent chance of rain east of a Memphis, MO to Sterling, IL line late Friday night that decreases to a 20 percent chance Saturday/Saturday night. Sunday the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of rain east of a Memphis, MO to Freeport, IL line. This further north and west shift can be attributed to the ECMWF/EPS. Sunday night/Monday the model consensus has mainly dry conditions for the entire area. Monday night through Wednesday Assessment...medium to high confidence on cooler temperatures. Low confidence for any rain. The global models vary slightly in timing but agree that a strong cold front will sweep through the area Monday night and usher in cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. The question is will there be any rain with the said front. Moisture is lacking so the prospects of dry conditions with the frontal passage appear good. However, a few rogue showers cannot be fully ruled out but any coverage would be 10 percent at best. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds move in later in the period as winds increase locally. Some gusts near 30kts are possible late in the period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Gibbs