Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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825 FXUS63 KDVN 132325 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe storms will continue south of I-80 through 10 PM. Hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. - Well above normal temperatures next week will bring hot and humid conditions to the area. Heat indices will be in the 95 to 100 range. - An active weather pattern will develop across the Midwest with organized storms running around the edge of the heat dome. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 18z DVN sounding still shows a small cap inhibiting convection but this will erode quickly with convection initiation occurring between 3 and 6 PM. Of interest is the PWAT of 1.50 in the sounding. This is essentially at the 90% percentile in climatology. Thus storms that develop will be very efficient in generating high rainfall rates. Additionally, precip loading of downdrafts raises the specter of wet microbursts. Thus through 6 PM very rapid development of storms will occur along or just ahead of the front from southern Iowa to east northeast of the QC metro area. Initially, the primary risk will be the potential for hail that is at least golfball size. Precipitation loading in the storm downdrafts suggests the potential for wet microbursts with wind gusts over 75 mph. Very short term models have more cloud cover in them than what is being observed by satellite but their overall trend points to storms growing upscale into a broken line across southeast Iowa into west central Illinois by early evening. Once this occurs, storm interactions raises the possibility of meso vortices developing and the potential for brief spin up tornadoes. The overall severe risk should be done by 10-11 PM with the decaying convection exiting the area by 2 AM. The very late night hours will be dry with dropping humidity levels. On Friday, slightly cooler but much less humid conditions will be seen across the area. Temperatures will still average above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Friday night Assessment...high confidence Quiet conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure quickly moves across the Midwest. Saturday through Thursday Assessment...high confidence on hot and humid conditions. Low confidence on rain chances. While there is a near daily risk of rain, much of the area has a high probability of remaining dry. A prolonged period of hot and humid conditions will build into the Midwest. Peak daytime heat index values of 95 to 100 are expected with overnight head index values only dropping into the mid 70s. The higher uncertainty is where will the organized thunderstorm track develop. If it develops north of the area, dry conditions will be seen. If it is over the area then periodic rounds of storms can be expected. The global models vary on their respective solutions, deterministic and ensemble wise. From a thermodynamic perspective, the favorable temperature gradients at H85 and H7 (19-23 and 9-13 C respectively) remain over or close to the area. Thus the prospects of seeing periodic organized thunderstorm complexes is reasonably good. The one time period that appears to have a higher probability of remaining dry looks to be Monday night into Tuesday. No discernible upper level disturbances can be found in the flow aloft. Otherwise, there is a small risk (20-30 percent) of thunderstorms Saturday through Monday for areas north of I-80. Tuesday night through Thursday there is a weak signal of an upper level disturbance moving through in the flow aloft that may bring a risk of rain to the entire area. However, overall coverage during this time period will remain at 20 to 30 percent. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Strong to severe storms will move into west central Illinois through 03z/14 and then slowly dissipate. Post frontal SHRA/TSRA have also developed across east central Iowa and will move east of the Mississippi and slowly dissipate. IFR conditions and gusty winds are likely in the SHRA/TSRA. After 03z/14 VFR conditions will be seen as high pressure builds into the Midwest. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08