426
FXUS63 KDVN 200851
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms today

- Hot and humid Friday through Saturday

- Numerous thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night,
  severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Band of rain and a few thunderstorms have been slowly moving
northward across the area, mainly in eastern IA and northwest
IL. The bulk of the rain has stayed north and west of the Quad
Cities. Doppler radar has shown some locations picking up 2-3
inches of rain, considering the 00z/20 DVN sounding showed a
healthy PWAT of 1.74 inches.

Today: Warm front will continue to lift northward as the day
progresses with the band of showers pushing north of the
forecast area this morning. CAM`s then develops isolated storms
later this afternoon with peak heating. Shear continues to be
quite weak so no severe weather expected. However, locally heavy
downpours will occur. Highs will range from around 80 far north
to the lower 90s far south.

Tonight: A mainly dry night ahead as the thunderstorm clusters
shift into southern MN and eastern SD. Lows will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

This weekend: Global models similar in developing a stronger
trough and surface low tracking from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes region. This sweeps a cold front across our
forecast area Saturday afternoon and night, with numerous
thunderstorms expected. In fact, SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of
5) of severe storms along Highway 20, and a MRGL Risk (Level 1
of 5) across the remainder of the forecast area. Stay tuned for
any further updates to this outlook. The main threats appear to
be damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. Highs
in the lower to mid 90s on Saturday with heat indicies of 95 to
100. On Sunday, dry and not as hot with highs in the mid 80s
north to around 90 far south.

Early next week: Hot weather again especially on Tuesday with
highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Another cold front arrives on
Tuesday with another chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through
portions of the area this morning. Then a stalled frontal
boundary in far northern MO will lift northward today. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in portions
of eastern IA. For now have prob30 for TSRA at DBQ/MLI.
Otherwise, VFR conds for most locations through this taf cycle
with MVFR/brf IFR in any thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase