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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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297 FXUS63 KDVN 290752 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a brief period of quiet weather this weekend, an active pattern sets up once again next week, with plenty of chances for showers and storms. Heavy rain is possible, but it is too soon to determine the severe threat. - Moderate to Major flooding is expected on several area rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today, the system that brought widespread rainfall to the area will move out. Aside from some residual showers on the back end of the system, we are expecting dry conditions for the remainder of the day. Overall, zonal flow will dominate, becoming more northwesterly tonight and tomorrow. This will allow for surface high pressure to move into the area tonight and into tomorrow. With this pattern in place, we will remain quiet through the short term forecast. Northwest flow will allow for cold advection to kick in, mainly tonight and tomorrow, where clear skies and lighter winds tonight will allow for us to cool off a bit. Daytime temperatures today will be in the low-mid 80s for most, with the nighttime temperatures dropping into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Sunday into Monday, high pressure will dominate the area, bringing below normal temperatures to the area. Current guidance brings widespread mid-upper 70s throughout the area. Aside from an increase in clouds on Monday, this will be a beautiful and dry stretch of weather. The increase in clouds will be a result of the moisture return needed ahead of the next system, which is expected to bring showers/storms to the area. Monday night and into Tuesday, we see our first wave that is set to impact the area this coming week. Much of the action with this seems to be late Monday night, moreso during Tuesday morning, as the LLJ takes much of the night to shift east over our area. This action will be associated with the leading shortwave trough, with the bulk of the energy in our northern forecast area. Thus, this will be the focus for higher precipitation amounts and thunderstorm potential. Latest trends have been showing that showers/storms may continue into the daytime hours, with some dry time in the mix. There remains some uncertainty on this, but will continue to update accordingly. It is too soon to discuss deterministic amounts of rainfall, but we will see the potential for heavy rain. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for high moisture content once again, with PWATs near 2.00-2.50". Ensemble guidance remains low on rainfall probabilities on the first round of precipitation, with and increase to 40-60% chances for at least an inch of rain with the second round on Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the larger wave passes through. This increase in precipitation will result from the increase in moisture seen, as the highest moisture content is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday. Localized areas of higher rainfall will be possible, especially where storms are seen. Beyond that, guidance starts to diverge on the next system, with large differences in timing and placement. While guidance seems to favor the Thursday night into Friday timeframe for more precipitation, will opt to refrain from any more details, as there is plenty of time for this to change. In either case, it would seem that we will approach the end of the work week with multiple rounds of showers and storms for the area. All guidance highlights much of the end of the week and into the weekend as an active period for rainfall. Unfortunately, all of this rainfall will lead to further fluctuations on the projected flooding along area rivers. Be sure to stay up to date on local flood headlines! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR to MVFR conditions will remain through 12z, with conditions improving throughout the area by 15z. Cigs down to 2500 ft will be possible with the broken stratus deck overhead, but these will lift and scatter out shortly after sunrise. Winds will shift from southwesterly to northwesterly this morning, as a cold front passes through the area. Gusts upwards to 25 KTs will be possible this afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Headline Changes: Issued a flood watch for the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt due to recent rainfall and QPF in the next 24 hrs. Upgraded Illinois City LD 16 on the Mississippi from Moderate to Major flood category. Discussion: Higher rainfall fell in the Wapsipinicon River basin than initially forecast. As a result, the new forecast for the De Witt gage has the river reaching flood stage in a little over 24 hrs. However, confidence in the placement of QPF tonight remains too low to issue a warning at this time. Later shifts will monitor trends and can issue if needed. The Cedar River forecasts remain on track, with crests likely in the next 24 hours at Palo and Cedar Rapids. A secondary rise with a lower crest than the 1st one, is now forecast on the Cedar due to the 1-2 inches that fell near the headwaters in the past 24 hours. On the mainstem Mississippi, rises will continue at all sites over the next 7 days. Higher rainfall amounts in southern MN and northern IA in the past 24 hours has resulted in a quicker forecast to Major flooding for many sites by approx. 36 to 48 hrs earlier, including Rock Island LD 15. Crests along the river should begin to show up in upcoming forecasts this weekend beginning with Dubuque LD 11. Barring any more heavy rainfall, crests are anticipated in the July 4th-10th timeframe. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel HYDROLOGY...Gross