Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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967 FXUS63 KDVN 080526 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight, after midnight and mainly south of Interstate 80. Severe storms are not expected. - Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through Tuesday with precipitation also below normal. A warming trend begins Wednesday onward. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 High pressure stretches from northwest Iowa southeastward into Arkansas. Clouds are streaming into the area from a storm system to our northwest There was deeper mixing again today with northwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH. Temperatures at 2 PM ranged from 78 degrees at Independence to 85 degrees at Macomb. Relative humidities this afternoon 20 to 30 percent. There are weak returns on radar across northern and central Iowa this afternoon. This area has been weakening with time with limited rain reports in area METARS. Think that there is a chance of sprinkles late this afternoon west of a Manchester to Cedar Rapids but confidence is low due to lots of dry air in place amd the weakening trends in the precipitation. Not sure if raindrops will survive to the surface. There is a low chance of gusty winds with any showers but precipitation would need to increase intensity for this to occur. Two disturbances are forecast to move to our north and south tonight into Saturday morning. Models show precipitation spreading into the area from each disturbance after 06 UTC and slowly spreading across the area through 12 UTC. The best chances for showers and storms are forecast to be south of Interstate 80 tonight and Saturday morning. Showers and storms will come to an end from west to east late morning into the early afternoon. The heaviest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch are possible in far northeast Missouri and adjacent areas of west central Illinois. High temperatures were lowered slightly for Saturday and range from the lower 70s along the Highway 20 corridor to around 80 south of a Memphis Missouri to Macomb Illinois line. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The GFS continues to be a outlier handling the upper flow for Sunday through Monday again tonight, as it cuts off an upper low, bringing rain though Iowa mainly on Monday ahead, but this feature is not included in other guidance, but is a more typical passing waves in northwest flow through the week. Our forecast now has some slight pops Monday, but otherwise does not lean into the aggressive cut off low of the GFS. The NBM mean QPF remains under 0.10 for that period. This northwest flow period is expected to last well into the week ahead, with gradually building heat into the region as well. This pattern could eventually favor some stong MCS activity, but that will need to wait until both heat and moisture are in place, and for now, we are not seeing much for low level moisture until Thursday and Friday when dewpoint forecasts exceed 60F. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 High based showers will continue to move through southeast Iowa overnight, most of this activity will be virga, but some raindrops will reach the ground near BRL at times. Otherwise, dry air at lower levels will keep our area VFR through sunrise. Another passing wave of energy should bring more showers to areas north of Interstate 80 this morning, as a cold front sweeps through, changing winds to northwest by early afternoon. Models are showing MVFR conditions widespread all day, but with so much dry air at low levels, this seems too aggressive, and looking upstream in MN and the rest of the upper Midwest, there are no low cigs anywhere, so this is enough to forecast a VFR TAF, but I have left a scattered 2500 ft layer in all areas this morning for the frontal passage as suggestion that we could see a lower cig, but again, it seems unlikely to happen. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin