Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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708 FXUS63 KDVN 161750 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are possible through the mid morning today. Highest coverage is anticipated north of Highway 30. Gusty winds and lightning are the primary threats. - Hot and humid conditions are expected today through Tuesday with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Monday is forecast to be the hottest day. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with low areal coverage expected. Better chances for showers and storms hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front drops in from the northwest. - Well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for the middle to end of the week with highs ranging from the mid 80s in the northwest to low/mid 90s across the central and southeast counties. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Today Overview: SPC mesoanalysis had broad southwesterly flow aloft over the Central U.S. with a 500mb vorticity max centered over central Iowa. This disturbance was collocated with scattered showers and storms, the eastern fringe of which extends into portions of Benton and Buchanan Counties. Latest CAMs show an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage into early this morning for areas roughly along/north of I-80 as the aforementioned shortwave rolls across the region. MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 30 kts of deep layer shear could support a few strong storms with gusts around 40 mph. This activity should quickly exit to the east after 9 AM. The main story today will be the heat with forecast high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and when combined with the humidity will create peak afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Will hold off on a Heat Advisory for now as most locations should fall short of reaching criteria (100 F). An increasing pressure gradient with a surface low passing across the northern Great Lakes will lead to breezy southerly winds locally, gusting up to 30 - 35 mph through the evening hours. The 06Z HRRR and NAMnest are resolving a MCV currently over NE Kansas and tracking it across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois from late this morning through the afternoon. This will be a feature to monitor as it could lead to scattered thunderstorms later today. Low confidence on whether or not we get storms to develop this afternoon, but if they do form a few could be strong with MLCAPE peaking between 2000-2500 J/kg. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Early in the Week: The hot weather continues with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s. The NBM has been consistent with afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F, yielding peak heat indices between 95 to the lower 100s. A Heat Advisory may eventually be needed for Monday and possibly on Tuesday. An increasing surface pressure gradient between low pressure over the central and northern Plains and high pressure along the East Coast will lead to breezy southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph, hopefully providing a little relief from the heat! Isolated storms (20%) may pop up during peak daytime heating on both Monday and Tuesday as SBCIN erodes during the afternoon. A few of these storms could be strong given the amount of instability available with SBCAPE of 2000+ J/kg. Wednesday On: A pattern change is expected to occur by mid-week, as the upper-level ridging over the eastern U.S. breaks down, and a longwave trough develops over the Intermountain West region. As the trough approaches, an attendant cold front will sweep through the area around Tuesday night to Wednesday, which will bring widespread chances (40 to 70%) of showers and storms. This should bring at least some relative relief to the upcoming heat and humidity, although high temperatures in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s remain possible south of Highway 20. A few additional mid-level shortwaves are expected to overtop the ridge into our area, so additional chances of precipitation will be in place through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue for this TAF period. We are tracking a cluster of showers and storms that is currently moving through our southern areas early this afternoon. MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings and visibilities will be possible with this cluster, which should impact the BRL and MLI TAF terminals over the next few hours. There was measured wind gusts to 40 knots at KMPZ with the leading thunderstorm, with weaker winds elsewhere under the precipitation. We have used TEMPO groups to highlight the most likely timing of this activity. This cluster will continue to slowly move northeastward this afternoon, moving out by late this afternoon. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds will remain with us today, weakening after sunset. There is a low potential for low-level wind shear as the nocturnal low-level jet returns. However, it isn`t expected to be as strong compared to last night, so we have left out of TAFs for now. CID and DBQ appear to be the most likely locations to see any LLWS, if it develops at all. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 17: KBRL: 98/1944 KMLI: 98/1897 Record Warm Minimum Temperatures: June 17: KDBQ: 74/1921 KMLI: 78/2018 June 18: KDBQ: 74/1921 KMLI: 77/2018 June 19: KDBQ: 76/1931 KMLI: 78/1953 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech AVIATION...Schultz CLIMATE...Schultz/Uttech