158
FNUS21 KWNS 261644
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast
OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and
early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far
southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the
associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting
rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern
CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These
observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards
higher probability for sustained critical conditions across
southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat
transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the
coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher
risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible
through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but
increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms.

Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed
over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be
above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit
rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning
strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy
downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous
discussion for additional details).

..Moore.. 06/26/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/

...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then,
late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry
thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA.
These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to
southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening
surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front.
Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a
shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer
of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is
anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist
throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades,
minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$