Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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508 ACUS01 KWNS 071222 SWODY1 SPC AC 071221 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 $$