739
ACUS01 KWNS 111927
SWODY1
SPC AC 111925

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into
mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard.

...20Z Update...
Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to
the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly
moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation
may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection
across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per
the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the
deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast.
Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422
for info on that threat.

Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent
observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the
southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat.

..Grams.. 06/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/

...West Central TX...
Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX.  This
activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level
warm advection.  An outflow boundary along the southern flank of
this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm
development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central
portions of TX.  Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms
will eventually evolve towards the early evening.  Upscale growth
into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph)
mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an
environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the
northwest rim of richer low-level moisture.

...CO/NM...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains.
These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally
gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the
evening.

...Upper MS Valley...
A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley
this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas
approaches the region.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon.  The
stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but
these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening.

...Eastern NC...
A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east
into the western Atlantic by late tonight.  Weak large-scale ascent
atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass
may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into
the early evening.  A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust
cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset.

$$