127
ACUS01 KWNS 070530
SWODY1
SPC AC 070529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region
beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats.

...Central Plains...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough
may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This
feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern
WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley
by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase
across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by
daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By
evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In
addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain
into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then
track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before
shifting east after sunset.

Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central
Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest
thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm
advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a
possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in
nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger
complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central
Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a
transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early
evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher
severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this
complex of storms evolves as anticipated.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024

$$