Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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640 ACUS01 KWNS 060551 SWODY1 SPC AC 060550 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible later today across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable upper trough over the upper Great Lakes region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern OH Valley into western NY by 18z, and 30-60m 12hr height falls will spread across much of western PA/NY by peak heating. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of this feature which will result in a narrow corridor of MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg from northeast PA into portions of upstate NY. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 17z and scattered thunderstorms should evolve along/ahead of the surging cold front. While deep-layer shear is not expected to be particularly strong, mid-level flow should be sufficient for some organization and gusty winds are the primary risk with storms by mid day. Farther south across VA/NC, influence of Great Lakes trough will be minimal but instability should be strong with MLCAPE values possibly approaching 2000 J/kg prior to convective initiation. Deep west-southwesterly flow and surface-6km bulk shear around 20kt may permit some updraft organization. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with thunderstorms that form after 18-19z across the southern Mid Atlantic. ...Florida... Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures will be noted across the FL Peninsula today with values near -10C across northern FL. Weak westerly flow at mid levels should encourage convection to concentrate along the eastern Peninsula and solenoidal influences will prove instrumental in robust convection by early afternoon. With MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and steep lapse rates, hail and wind may be noted with the strongest storms. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... Upper ridge is expected to hold across the southwestern US through the day1 period. This position will ensure northwesterly flow across the southern High Plains with 500mb flow possibly approaching 30kt. In addition to very steep lapse rates, PW values will be quite high with readings of 1.5-2" from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. This corridor is coincident with a weak surface boundary that should serve as the focus for convective initiation. NAM forecast sounding southeast of GAG at 21z exhibits MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear and negligible CINH. Convection should evolve near this wind shift after 21z than propagate south-southwest into the eastern TX Panhandle. If sufficient convection forms such that a substantial cold pool evolves, there may be a need for a SLGT risk to account for potentially organized wind event. Will maintain low probabilities at this time due to storm coverage uncertainty. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/06/2024 $$