919
ACUS01 KWNS 060053
SWODY1
SPC AC 060051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL
REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and
northern Mississippi region.

...01z Update...

Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas
toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak
buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central
WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg
and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated
thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are
common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next
several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens
low-level lapse rates.

Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable
short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ
has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is
aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of
scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across
the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk
along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across
northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise,
gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it
progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening.

An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening.
Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will
advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL
into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in
1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be
maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have
adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for
this threat.

BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this
evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have
contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio
Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the
international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind.

..Darrow.. 06/06/2024

$$