320
ACUS01 KWNS 260101
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN
IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and
perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of
southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central
Missouri.

...01Z Update...
A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed
plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain
West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development.  This currently extends east-southeast of the Black
Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa.
 Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with
a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great
Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that
this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and
adjacent portions of the central Great Plains.

Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening
convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase
in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared
west-northwesterly mid-level flow.  South of the front, a seasonably
moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by
large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles
with steep mid-level lapse rates.  Inflow of this air may support
upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become
well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts.
This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe
gusts overnight.

..Kerr.. 06/26/2024

$$