180
ACUS01 KWNS 250100
SWODY1
SPC AC 250058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper
Midwest this evening and overnight. A corridor of potentially
widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of
Minnesota into Wisconsin.

...01z Update Upper Midwest...
Much of the previous forecast remains unchanged with only minor
modifications. Several areas of scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
over the northern Red River Valley and upper Midwest. Scattered
supercells ahead of the occluded front over northern MN should
continue eastward with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this
evening before slowly weakening as they encounter decreasing
buoyancy near Lake Superior.

Farther south, complexities surrounding the isolated ongoing
convection in southern WI and additional convective initiation of
elevated storms near and north of the effective warm front remain
substantial. Storms over southern WI appear likely to continue
southeast on the fringes of the better ascent and buoyancy with a
risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening. Observational data
shows increasing low-level warm-air advection and upper-level ascent
could support additional storm development this evening over
portions of west-central MN with the potential for rapid upscale
growth into a bowing MCS. Substantial spatial uncertainty is also
evident in late afternoon CAM guidance, but most guidance now does
indicate some form of relatively intense MCS forming along the front
in the 02-04z time frame. With 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE and moderate
effective shear in place, a swath of significant damaging winds
remains possible over parts of eastern MN, and much of
central/southern WI, though with substantial uncertainty. Will
maintain level-3 Enhanced wind probabilities as is with minor
adjustments to the level-2 Slight over lower MI where storms may
persist through the end of the convective period.

...Carolinas...
The cold front over the eastern US is slowly moving offshore this
evening. Remaining storms have undergone a gradual decrease in
coverage and intensity this evening with the cessation of diurnal
heating and the weakening of broader-scale forcing for ascent. An
isolated damaging gust could occur with the stronger storms centered
near the NC/SC border, but the broader severe risk should continue
to decrease below MRGL criteria after sunset.

..Lyons.. 06/25/2024

$$