427
ACUS01 KWNS 160541
SWODY1
SPC AC 160540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and
overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes...

Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB
into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially
influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls
glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for
the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that
will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over
western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the
large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection
should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a
warm advection corridor.

Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS
Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that
surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a
focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may
be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in
the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection
along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of
the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the
central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated
convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of
the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the
overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in
excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the
strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary
concern with the elevated convection.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024

$$