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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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552 ACUS01 KWNS 051944 SWODY1 SPC AC 051942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. $$