527
ACUS01 KWNS 240058
SWODY1
SPC AC 240056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible across parts of
the Northeast and New England this evening. Additional isolated
severe storms are possible across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic
region, as well as the northern High Plains.

...01z Update...
Ongoing convection over New England has decreased in coverage and
intensity over the last couple of hours. While some buoyancy remains
over southern New England, the loss of diurnal heating amid poor
mid-lapse rates, will favor a continued downtrend in convective
intensity this evening. Still, a few damaging gusts will remain
possible, with isolated ongoing storms given relatively robust shear
profiles.

Farther south over the Mid Atlantic, several bands of storms have
developed ahead of the slow-moving cold front over western/central
PA and WV. Deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized
multi-cells and or brief supercell structures. However, the gradual
onset of nocturnal stabilization and the loss of forcing from the
departing mid-level wave to the north suggests additional storm
development/upscale growth is unlikely this evening. The potential
for damaging gusts will persist for a few more hours as storms
encounter diminishing residual buoyancy. While the severe threat
should generally decrease over the broader Mid Atlantic and upper OH
Valley this evening, somewhat greater storm coverage and perhaps a
locally greater risk may persist over parts of southern/central PA
into northwestern MD. Will maintain the Slight risk (level 2/5)
across this region with a risk for damaging gusts.

...Northern Plains...
No changes were made to the current outlook area over portions of MT
and ND. Isolated supercells over southern SK may move south into
northern MT and western ND this evening and overnight with
additional storm development possible stateside. Despite somewhat
limited low-level moisture (00z GGW RAOB), supercell wind profiles
may support a risk for damaging gusts and hail into this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/24/2024

$$