Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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055 ACUS01 KWNS 110049 SWODY1 SPC AC 110048 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 $$