326
FNUS22 KWNS 131926
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of
Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona
for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are
expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon,
just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support
drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving
slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently
become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the
introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the
previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate
south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward
across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak
surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy
westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM.
Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH),
elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected.
The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is
marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend
upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks.

Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a
midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated
downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally
dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern
WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected
for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in
northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds
are expected.

On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel
offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a
result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely
overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight
hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where
fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered
for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized
for such highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$