833
FNUS22 KWNS 050655
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as
northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern
CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will
continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the
southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and
increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear
limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning
ignitions from high-based storms.

...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms...
As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and
far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into
the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft
appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced
north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to
support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to
northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary
layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any
storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for
wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential
appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM
and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for
ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage.

..Lyons.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$