Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
013 FNUS22 KWNS 161943 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$