432
ACUS02 KWNS 191742
SWODY2
SPC AC 191741

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the
Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over
parts of the central High Plains.

...The Northeast/New England...
On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge
from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate
mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and
into northern New England.  As a short-wave trough shifts across
Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward
across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development
as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon.

Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to
supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell
storms/clusters are expected.  Locally strong/damaging gusts are
expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also
possible locally.  Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset
of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization.

...Central High Plains...
A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area
during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone
extending from the Midwest into the central Plains.  As the boundary
layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE
development will eventually support initiation of
isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming
and into northeastern Colorado.  With low-level southerlies beneath
moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few
stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts.  As such,
damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential --
will be possible locally.  Hail may also occur with a few of the
strongest storms early in the convective cycle.

With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection
shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the
Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for
gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken
nocturnally.

..Goss.. 06/19/2024

$$