Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
158 ACUS02 KWNS 041737 SWODY2 SPC AC 041736 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some tornado risk. ...South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very unstable environment. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the potential introduction of low severe probabilities. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 $$