869
ACUS03 KWNS 050732
SWODY3
SPC AC 050731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High
Plains on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie
Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday
morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central
Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is
expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper
ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest.
Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two
features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid
MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast.

At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern
New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more
southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into
northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front
over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern
Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the
severe potential low.

Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become
increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm
front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back
across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is
anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less
mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a
result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near
the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a
result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for
organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack
of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is
some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the
ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would
increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a
convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is
currently low.

..Mosier.. 06/05/2024

$$