Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
740 ACUS03 KWNS 030724 SWODY3 SPC AC 030723 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 $$