Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
122 ACUS03 KWNS 210650 SWODY3 SPC AC 210649 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 $$