231
ACUS03 KWNS 140701
SWODY3
SPC AC 140700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening
and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS
on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern
MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest
winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper
MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes
as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower
over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID.

At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the
primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will
become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and
overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast.
Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS
Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the
vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with
the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI,
with generally weak lift for much of the day points west.

...Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes...
Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt
westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in
substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this
activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day.

To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead
trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the
overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along
and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY
into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front,
along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of
hail through the night.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

$$