998
ACUS03 KWNS 110730
SWODY3
SPC AC 110729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO WESTERN AND UPSTATE NEW YORK AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern
US from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York.
Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

... Synopsis ...

Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread the northeast United
States on Sunday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly
move east across the eastern US. Farther southwest, across the
southern Great Plains, the aforementioned cold front will make
little southward progress as southerly low-level flow increases in
response to surface cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains
late in the period.

... Mid-Atlantic northward into Upstate New York ...

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from late morning
into the early afternoon associated with a modest increase in
large-scale ascent and surface convergence along the cold front.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60Fs to low 70Fs
will combine with diurnal heating to result in most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 1500 J/kg. Despite the better effective-layer
shear remaining north of the US, the degree of instability and the
very moist airmass will support sporadic wind damage with the
strongest thunderstorms.

... Southern Great Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley ...

Multiple MCVs from the preceding days convection will likely be
located across the region through the forecast period. A very moist
airmass -- precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches in places
-- and diurnal heating will result in a strongly unstable and weakly
capped airmass. Although thunderstorms will be possible across the
totality of the delineated area, it is likely that pockets of more
concentrated thunderstorm activity will develop in the vicinity of
the aforementioned MCVs. Some severe potential -- likely damaging
wind gusts -- will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

$$