228
FXUS63 KEAX 252319
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable conditions today.

- Rain chances for Friday into the weekend have decreased across the
area as remnants of Hurricane Helene are forecasted to stay further
east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Surface ridging and strong northerly flow aloft keep skies clear and
temperatures seasonal for today. Highs settle in the mid 70s around
the region. The overall atmospheric pattern remains fairly static
sans Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico. As Helene works its way
on shore tomorrow evening, it mixes with an antecedent low centered
over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Synoptic high pressure to the north
with another high omega blocking to the west halts Helene`s progress
producing both an interesting binary orbiting effect with the
antecedent low and eventual merger of the two systems. This also
causes the precipitation field to spread across the Ohio River
Valley. Recent model guidance has leaned toward a more eastward
track for the merged low and a slightly further eastward push of the
blocking high across the Rockies. This keeps the weekend drier with
probabilistic guidance peaking rain chances >0.01 inch around
5 percent across the KC metro to 20-25 percent along the US-65
corridor. This is significantly lower than previous forecast
runs. Some uncertainties remain which will be refined as Helene
moves on shore and starts interacting with the resident
atmospheric pattern; therefore, some fluctuations are possible.
However, confidence is increasing that the bulk of the
precipitation will remain further east.

The generally stagnant upper level pattern keeps the remnant low
and sparse rain chances around through the weekend. Temperatures
gradually warm reaching the 80s by Sunday. A synoptic trough digs
across the northern Plains which gives a heave-ho to the pattern
including the post-tropical low punting it eastward opening up the
atmospheric flow across the eastern half of the CONUS. Long range
guidance continues to keep things fairly seasonal as northwest flow
establishes behind a dry cold front expected early next week.
Temperatures reset to the 70s. Ridging once again forms across the
desert southwest combined with midlevel ridging along the I-35
corridor points toward another stretch of dry and seasonal but
gradually warming temperatures in a trend fairly similar to what we
have seen the past few day (sans the precipitation chances).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with clr skies expected. The
exception will be be for fog development at STJ btn 09Z-14Z
which will reduce vis to 2SM or less. Winds will be lgt and vrb
thru 16Z when they will become ENE btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...73