Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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583 FXUS63 KEAX 200457 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1157 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms this morning. Strong to severe storms are unlikely with this early activity. - Another round of storms is likely late this afternoon to evening. Strong to severe storms are possible with this activity. - Widespread and much needed rainfall is likely this weekend with multiple rounds of showers and storms likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Expected thunderstorms and showers through early morning but much more active and on-going into the early afternoon than anticipated. There was some decent wind downburst signatures warrantying issuance of severe thunderstorm warning. Received downed tree reports and with brief power outage in Leavenworth county area. Main concern today was the length of shower and thunderstorm activity, as this would limit the redevelopment that is anticipated later this evening. However, satellite imagery and radar showing clearing convective activity, this will allow for plenty of afternoon heating. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT shows lower 80s in areas of recent storm activity from KC metro to St Joseph areas, with upper 80s to lower 90s once elsewhere. As the afternoon progresses and and warming continues the combination of the anomalously high moisture and warmer condition will result in the unstable air mass by the early evening hours. Again the main concern is the early activity but current analysis maps shows the still decent SBCAPE, although the better chances across north-eastern MO. While the main threat from the the thunderstorm that develop will be damaging winds and quarter size hail, there is the potential for an isolated storm to produce tornado, while the likelihood is very low (<5%). The main time period for development is expected to still remain 00z-02z across the KC Metro (although 20-30% probabilities) and northeastern MO 02-06z with better chances (30-50% probabilities). Tomorrow looks relatively drier conditions in the day and early evening with a lull in weather activity until late Friday night from 06z to 12Z Saturday. Then the weekend is more active with rounds of precipitation in much needed drought conditions. The shower/thunderstorm activity moving across the area on Friday night into Saturday morning have decent confidence (30 to 60%) across northern areas of KS and MO and with precipitation chances increasing and spreading across the entire CWA overnight with the frontal and short wave activity. Another round of storms looks likely Saturday night into Sunday as a stronger shortwave beings to move into the Plains. The probabilities of heavy rainfall continue to increase as both the NBM and the LREF guidance both show probabilities accumulated precipitation exceeding 1 inch at 80-100% through Monday morning. Storm of precipitation from Saturday morning through Monday morning indicating areas in northern MO of 3 to 4 inches and gradually 1-2 inches further south into central MO. At this time the the concern for flash flooding threat is relatively low with the current drought conditions and headwater flash flood guidance in a 3 to 6 hour period ranges from 3 to 6 inches. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the next 24 hours. With that said, there is a quickly increasing chance for storms just beyond the current TAF cycle that will effect the terminals early Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail through Friday with a cold front settling south through the region late Friday night which will bring a chance for storms Saturday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Cutter/Pesel