949
FXUS63 KEAX 260815
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures expected through the start
  of next week

- Lowered precipitation chances for our area Friday into the
  weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Another morning with light winds and clear skies has lead to an
environment primed for radiational cooling. As a result of dew point
depressions ranging from 1-3 degrees, areas of patchy fog are
possible this morning primarily for northern portions of the area.
Areas that receive fog will clear out around 14Z-15Z. A surface high
just to the north of the CWA will lead to mostly quiet conditions
for today. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
80s making for a comfortable, fall-like day.

Later today, mid to upper level troughing to the east will
transition to a cut-off low and slowly meander to the southeast of
the forecast area. This cut-off low will slowly continue to fill. As
it drifts further to the east any associated cloud cover or rain
chances for today will shift further east with it. Very limited
cloud coverage and drier conditions are expected for today.

Friday, remnants of Helene push northerly through the eastern side
of the Gulf and Georgia. The Fujiwhara effect plays a role in the
aforementioned cut off low merging with Helene and pushing into the
Ohio River Valley. With model consensus keeping Helene`s track
further east, drier conditions are expected Friday through the
weekend. A sprinkle or two is possible for more eastern portions of
the CWA.

Ridging builds into the area for the start of next week and is
flattened by troughing moving through Canada next Tuesday. A ~10
degree drop in temperature is possible across the area early next
week with the passage of a strong cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conds with clr skies will prevail thru the pd. The
exception will be be for fog development at STJ btn 09Z-14Z
which will reduce vis to 2SM or less. Winds will be lgt and vrb
thru 16Z when they will become E to ENE btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73