680
FXUS63 KEAX 160739
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
239 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms expected to move through northwest Missouri
  this morning, but dry conditions return by the afternoon

- Warm and Humid Conditions This Week

- Additional Shower/Storm Chances Throughout This Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Thunderstorms linger through the morning hours but are expected to
move out by mid morning with trough axis shifting east. Widespread
severe weather is unlikely, however we should maintain just enough
instability to pose at least an isolated threat for strong to severe
storms. The highest concern would be gusty winds. Storms are
expected to gradually weaken is slide to the east, leaving the
remainder of the day dry. After that focus turns to very warm
conditions expected the next several days. Mid level ridging sets up
over the east coast and builds for the next several days. This sets
the stage for ample southerly flow and hot and humid conditions
each day.On Sunday expect highs to reach into the low to mid 90s (5-
10 degrees above normal). As far as heat indices go, dewpoints will
reach the upper 60s to low 70s, increasing the heat index to near
100 degrees.

Dry weather will persist on Monday and Tuesday with similar
conditions expected each day. Expect afternoon highs to reach the
low to mid 90s with maximum heat indices near 100 each day. Tuesday
will be another hot one, though it may be just a bit "cooler" on
Tuesday with highs reaching the low 90s. By Wednesday we can expect
to get some very brief relief (although minimal) as a shortwave
trough sends a front through the forecast area. This will bring the
return of shower and thunderstorm chances during the day Wednesday.
It look also allow for temperatures to drop a couple of degrees,
although we can still expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
These slightly cooler temperatures will stick around for Thursday as
week. Hot conditions return for the end of the week as the ridge to
our west continues to expand. Right now, confidence remains low in
any additional precipitation, but thats something we will monitor in
the coming days.

 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last for the next couple of hours.
Showers and storms from the west will move into the area and worsen
conditions. Some uncertainty exists with the timing of showers and
storms. Once the storms move to the east, VFR conditions will return
with some gusts up to 20 mph during the day. Winds are expected to
come from the south through the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Collier