Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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515 FXUS63 KEAX 250741 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM Today. Afternoon maximum heat index values upwards of 108 F. - Scattered storms and showers possible through the daytime hours. - A Complex of thunderstorms expected to move into the area overnight through Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Through 2 AM, rather quiet and warm morning across the region. Surface analysis reveals a weak surface trough across Iowa into southeast Nebraska. Persistent WAA has kept temps in the mid to upper 80s F with dew points around 70 F. A decaying complex of thunderstorms continues to slowly evolve across central and western Kansas. With the broad mid-level ridging stretched across the lower CONUS, forcing for ascent is rather nil across the area this morning. Short range solutions suggest a decent LLJ, but with lack of support aloft, and no focused forcing for ascent, it`s looking more likely we`ll be quiet, precip wise, through sunrise. Morning lows will be stifling, around 80 for the KC Metro and upper 70s elsewhere. Through late morning to midday the surface front up north will continue drop south toward the MO/IA border. At the same time, an open short wave trough will emerge from the mid-Missouri Valley. This combo will more than likely support scattered storms and showers across portions of the region through the day. Even with broken cloud cover through much of the day, temperatures will still top out in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values maxing out around 105 to 108 F. Through the evening, with the synoptic boundary still hanging near the MO/IA border, a more pronounced H500 short wave is expected to traverse the larger flow pattern off the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest. With more than ample boundary layer moisture just pooling along and south of the surface boundary, MLCAPE values will easily approach 3000 J/Kg across southern Iowa and into northern Missouri. Buoyed by steep mid-level lapse rates and modest shear profiles, storms will likely fire across Iowa by mid to late evening. With 0-3km shear ending up parallel to the boundary as it drops south, we`ll likely see upscale growth into a line or cluster of storms. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard at this time. Latest CAMs continue to focus on development overnight focused on central and eastern Missouri, moving north to south across the region through Wednesday morning. Quick look at RAP Corfidi vectors and 0-3km shear, the match up suggests we could end up with some shear/cold pool balance, which will promote continued development as it drops into central and finally south-southeast Missouri through Wednesday morning. A more stout ridge builds in over the Mountain West, bringing a surface ridge southward across the region through Wednesday. This will result in near normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, highs in the 80s. Into Friday, precipitation chances return, but there is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern in the extended. For the most part, a weak mid-level ridge will take shape, but influence from passing short waves and larger synoptic scale ridging across the northern CONUS makes for some uncertainty for precipitation chances Thursday into Friday as well as the temperature forecast for Friday. The weekend is similarly uncertain, with long range solutions developing modest ridging through Sunday over the western High Plains. However, an advancing H500 trough ejecting off the northwestern CONUS across the northern Plains will bring additional potential for precipitation to the region. .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. SCT to BKN mid-level ceilings can be expected through the day. South-southwest winds will continue, increasing late morning, with gusts 20 to 25 kts through the afternoon. As of now, any precipitation is expected to remain well east of the terminals, with any precip being widely scattered in nature. SHRA and/or TSRA chances will increase late tonight. At this time, will leave any mention out of this issuance, as greater chances appear to arrive early Wednesday morning, outside the current TAF period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week. Please visit our local river forecast page at water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly affected by updated information and additional rainfall around the region. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Kurtz HYDROLOGY...Pesel