855
FXUS63 KEAX 221122
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Additional rainfall amounts of a couple inches possible today,
  south

* Weak showers/thunder chances continue into Monday

* Cooler temperatures settle in through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved through the area
yesterday evening and through the overnight, providing some welcome
rainfall. MRMS 24hr estimated rainfall amounts through 2am
highlighted two distinct swaths across the CWA, NW/N Missouri and
then a wider area coming into the KC Metro from the SW and then east
along I-70. In both instances, a few pockets and bands of 2 to near
3 inches of rainfall. Given much of those amounts fell within 3 to 6
hour periods, they have remained well within/below FFG. In the
immediate/near term, the latter mentioned, southern, swath/area
remains active and CAM guidance most commonly suggest an additional
1 to 2 inches of rainfall as another push of activity moves out of
central and southeast KS early this morning. As such, not completely
out of the woods with regards to flash flooding risk should areas
that have received near 3 inches see an additional couple or more
through the early to mid-morning hours.

Through the day today, cold frontal boundary will continue to drop
through the state, pushing most robust activity southward. For much
of the CWA though, there will remain periods of elevated  weak
shower activity as the SW CONUS trough continues to move into High
Plains and stream shortwave energy and moist/weakly unstable SW mid-
level flow into the area. Surface frontal position by the
afternoon/evening is expected to push out of the CWA and into the
SGF area, potentially toward the MO/AR border. That in effect
pushes any strong/severe threat out of the CWA as a result.
Overall a cool to chilly, wet at times overcast day.

Looking into the work week, there is an unusual amount of
uncertainty lingering with regards to pattern evolution and by
virtue temperature and precipitation forecasts as you move into mid-
late week. But first, for Monday, light precipitation activity is
possible at times as the southern stream trough moves into the area
and provides a period of deeper lift. From there, deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue to struggle to find a consensus in the
large scale pattern evolution. Namely, how to handle a northern
stream trough dropping down into the Central Plains. The 00z Euro
and Canadian deterministic models continue to develop a closed low
that lingers over the central to southern Plains, where as the 00z
GFS shows a much more progressive pattern with no closed low
developing or lingering. Though, previous runs of the GFS did linger
a closed low, but much further east than the Euro solution. This too
tends to be reflected in the ensemble guidance with 25th/75th
percentile Max T ranges of 6 or more degrees F by mid-week.
Regardless, that should not carry much consequence considering we
are talking about 70s to low 80s. Precipitation forecasts will
hinge greatly on where (or if) closed low develops and how long
it lingers. A general lack of moisture keeps PoPs down, though
do increase late week with depictions of a tropical system
lifting out of the Gulf and interacting with any lingering
closed low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A messy aviation forecast through at least the first half of the
TAF period. Currently, mixture of IFR to MVFR cloud cover across
the area with some uncertainty in areal coverage and persistence of
IFR. Do have prevailing IFR at all sites except STJ to start,
though some bounce between IFR/MVFR will be possible given
current upstream obs. By afternoon/after 18z, should begin to
see widespread gradual ceiling improvements with VFR returning
by around 00z. Periods -RA/-SHRA will prevail through the
morning hours, giving way to predominantly overcast conditions
by late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis