Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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615 FXUS63 KEAX 171038 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 538 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected through the week. - Rain chances increase late in the week and into the weekend. - A few strong storms look possible Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The blocking high-over-low pattern remains over the eastern CONUS with a cyclone over the Carolinas undercutting the ridge over the the Middle Atlantic to New England. To the west a strong closed low was moving into the Great Basin. Through the middle of the country broad upper ridging was noted. The blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS is restricting the progression of the upper flow over the the US and as a result, we`ll continue to see above normal temperatures across the region with the upper ridge axis persistent through the region. The normal high for the KC area through the end of the week is 79 and trending to 78 by Thursday and Friday. With high temperatures forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, we`ll be 10-15 degrees above normal through the end of the week. Conditions through the end of the week look generally dry as well, given the upper ridging over the area. However, some low chances for rain show up in the western and mainly northwestern portions of the forecast area at various times. This morning, there is a slight chance (<15%) some precipitation survives into far northwestern MO. It looks more likely that the ongoing convection in central KS will dissipate as it slowly tracks east this morning. Wednesday morning, a similar scenario looks possible, with convection developing in the High Plains during the afternoon/evening hours and tracking east overnight. Ensemble guidance has this precipitation area surviving further east and as a result, have low PoPs (<20%) into eastern KS and western MO during the day Wednesday. Thursday, low-level forcing associated with a weak frontal boundary will push into eastern NE and KS. This would act as the focus for storm development Thursday afternoon with storms then pushing east during the evening/overnight hours. We could see a few strong storms Thursday with modest instability building and marginal shear. That front may stall across the area Friday into Saturday and that`s when it looks like we`ll see our best potential for precipitation. Late in the period, the upper-level pattern becomes much more uncertain. Ensemble clusters show several potential patterns evolving next week. One cluster (about 30% of members) has a large trough developing by day 7-8. However another cluster (about 15% of members) shows ridging during this time frame. The ensemble mean generally shows troughing across the middle of the country with ridging over the coasts. This model variation generally explains the low PoPs through the end of the forecast and into next week. Needless to say, confidence is not high with either scenario at this point in time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Winds will be light from the south to southeast. May see some diurnal afternoon CU that will dissipate with loss of daytime heating. Best potential for fog this morning looks east of the terminals into central MO, where winds are lightest. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB