244
FXUS63 KEAX 151905
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
205 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (15-25%) for an isolated shower or storm this
  afternoon and again on Monday for areas east of Highway 65.

- Slight chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday
  across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with better chances
  (30-50%) for more widespread precipitation coming Friday into
  the weekend.

- Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A closed upper low, including the remnants of Francine, continues to
wobble across the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon with a
longwave trough over the western CONUS. Diurnal heating has eroded
the capping inversion leading to a growing cumulus field. Ascent is
rather weak, but weak forcing associated with a westward progressing
lobe of energy could be sufficient to produce a few isolated showers
and storms this afternoon. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, but weak shear
favors up-and-down pulse thunderstorms which could produce brief
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Any convection will wane with sunset
this evening. Clear skies and light surface winds overnight supports
the development of patchy fog, but elevated winds just off the
surface should limit this to low-lying areas and river valleys.

Similar conditions to today are expected on Monday as the western
trough amplifies and a tropical system moves inland across the
Carolinas. In between, mid-level ridging builds over the Central
Plains with highs again in the 80s. Weak ascent in an uncapped
environment could produce a few isolated showers/storms Monday
afternoon across central Missouri, but lack of shear will once again
limit intensity of these storms.

The mid-level ridge moves overhead for Tuesday, leading to dry
conditions before the western trough takes on a negative tilt as it
ejects across the Rockies and Northern Plains late Tuesday into
Wednesday. While the main forcing will reside well north and west of
the local area, subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow could
spark periodic showers and storms across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri Wednesday and Thursday. Higher chances (30-50%) for
more widespread precipitation come Friday into the weekend as a
closed low approaches from the west and shunts a cold front
toward the area. Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal
through Friday with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions expected. Cumulus field with bases around
5kft this afternoon will diminish with sunset this evening.
Southeast winds around 10kts weaken after sunset. There is some
signal for patchy fog or low clouds to develop Monday morning, but
confidence is too low for inclusion in TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TOP/Flanagan
AVIATION...TOP/Flanagan