613
FXUS63 KEAX 251733
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM Today. Afternoon maximum
  heat index values upwards of 108 F.

- Scattered storms and showers possible through the daytime hours.

- A Complex of thunderstorms expected to move into the area
  overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Through 2 AM, rather quiet and warm morning across the region.
Surface analysis reveals a weak surface trough across Iowa into
southeast Nebraska. Persistent WAA has kept temps in the mid to
upper 80s F with dew points around 70 F. A decaying complex of
thunderstorms continues to slowly evolve across central and western
Kansas. With the broad mid-level ridging stretched across the lower
CONUS, forcing for ascent is rather nil across the area this
morning. Short range solutions suggest a decent LLJ, but with lack
of support aloft, and no focused forcing for ascent, it`s looking
more likely we`ll be quiet, precip wise, through sunrise. Morning
lows will be stifling, around 80 for the KC Metro and upper 70s
elsewhere.

Through late morning to midday the surface front up north will
continue drop south toward the MO/IA border. At the same time, an
open short wave trough will emerge from the mid-Missouri Valley.
This combo will more than likely support scattered storms and
showers across portions of the region through the day. Even with
broken cloud cover through much of the day, temperatures will still
top out in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values maxing out
around 105 to 108 F.

Through the evening, with the synoptic boundary still hanging near
the MO/IA border, a more pronounced H500 short wave is expected to
traverse the larger flow pattern off the Northern Plains into the
upper Midwest. With more than ample boundary layer moisture just
pooling along and south of the surface boundary, MLCAPE values will
easily approach 3000 J/Kg across southern Iowa and into northern
Missouri. Buoyed by steep mid-level lapse rates and modest shear
profiles, storms will likely fire across Iowa by mid to late
evening. With 0-3km shear ending up parallel to the boundary as it
drops south, we`ll likely see upscale growth into a line or cluster
of storms. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard at this time.
Latest CAMs continue to focus on development overnight focused on
central and eastern Missouri, moving north to south across the
region through Wednesday morning. Quick look at RAP Corfidi vectors
and 0-3km shear, the match up suggests we could end up with some
shear/cold pool balance, which will promote continued development
as it drops into central and finally south-southeast Missouri
through Wednesday morning.

A more stout ridge builds in over the Mountain West, bringing a
surface ridge southward across the region through Wednesday. This
will result in near normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday,
highs in the 80s. Into Friday, precipitation chances return, but
there is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern in the
extended. For the most part, a weak mid-level ridge will take shape,
but influence from passing short waves and larger synoptic scale
ridging across the northern CONUS makes for some uncertainty for
precipitation chances Thursday into Friday as well as the
temperature forecast for Friday. The weekend is similarly uncertain,
with long range solutions developing modest ridging through Sunday
over the western High Plains. However, an advancing H500 trough
ejecting off the northwestern CONUS across the northern Plains will
bring additional potential for precipitation to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Challenging TAFs for the next 24 hours. Models have done quite
poorly with convection this morning across the region, so
confidence is quite low even for the next six hours. Any showers
and storms this afternoon will be spotty and will affect a given
terminal briefly; however, confidence is generally too low for
any mention of TS through early this evening. However, models
are trending slower and for more coverage of storms in far
eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight. Timing
uncertainty of storms is very high, with spread of 6-8 hours
apparent in short-term models. For now, generally included a
consensus time window of 04z to 10z for the TAF sites. Brief
restrictions and erratic winds/gusts should be expected in
vicinity of storms. As for winds, primarily south or southwest
winds expected through tonight, with speeds of 7 to 15 kt and
occasional gusts to 20 kt or so (outside of convection). By
tomorrow morning, winds should become northwesterly/northerly.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of
rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling
into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the
next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching
minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week.
Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly
affected by updated information and additional rainfall around
the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>006-
     011>015-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...CMS
HYDROLOGY...Pesel