729
FXUS66 KEKA 221210
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
510 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot inland temperatures will peak today. Temperatures
will moderate on Sunday, but will remain hot and above average into
mid next week. A late season trough will further moderate inland
temperatures mid to late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Stratus remains embedded from Del Norte, down the
coast, and up the Eel River Delta. Not much clearing is
anticipated in these areas today, but being slightly more
shallow, the stratus is not pushing as far inland as yesterday.
Daytime highs in the interior valleys will be above normal and hot
today, up to 102, creating a moderate heat risk. A NE Pacific
trough will deliver a weak and dry frontal boundary this evening.
This will act to deepen the marine layer and likely turn on the
light drizzle ingredients robustly tonight. The ridge in place
will weaken under the trough, but a Four Corners area high
pressure area will generally maintain the inland heat 5 to 9
degrees above normal through Tuesday.

A lower latitude trough continues to be modeled to push through the
Pacific NW late Wednesday or Thursday. The trough will be dry for
N CA, but will lower inland temperatures further to below
climatological norms. This system does look to increase gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds and potentially create some
localized fire weather concerns. NBM holds a 30 to 50% chance for
wind gusts to exceed 30 mph through and over favorable terrain in
Lake County on Wednesday. /JJW


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF
ACV/CEC...Coastal stratus is currently holding strong early this
morning from the Oregon boarder until Cape Mendocino. Low ceilings
under 1000ft are expected to remain through the early morning hours
until about midday with guidance suggesting close to 80% confidence
of ceilings >500ft at both terminals. However, by the afternoon
model guidance is showing only a 20-30% probability of marine
stratus ceilings remaining under 2000ft within the terminal
vicinities. HREF guidance shows this marine layer momentarily
clearing around 18-20Z before returning around sunset close to 0400Z
and remaining through tomorrow evening. Thus, LIFR conditions will
persist a little bit longer before breaking up then possibly
returning in the evening. Light (>15kt) breezes from the north-
northwest are forecasted as well.

UKI...The marine layer situated over the San Francisco Bay shows
little chance of flowing north up the Russian River tonight due to
minimal southerly flow in the valley. This means more summer
conditions and VFR conditions will be present at UKI for today.
Strong ridgetop winds could possibly mix down in the terminal space
leading to periodic gusts, yet confidence on this occurring is
minimal and thus not represented in the TAFs. thus VFR will prevail
at this terminal. Northwest winds will likely produce the occasional
gust this afternoon in the 15 kt area. Not expecting much advance of
stratus up the valley from the south tonight, but hi-res MOS
guidance does show very light southerly winds at the terminal
tonight, so confidence on this will continue to improve in the
coming hours.


&&

.MARINE...Strong north winds are remaining in our area through the
weekend. The strongest of these winds is forecasted to be south of
Cape Mendocino with a 50% chance of gust +50mph according to model
guidance. These powerful winds will create hazardous sea conditions
for the southern waters through the weekend. The northern waters are
forecasted to diminish as the day goes on except with spotty
dangerous conditions downwind of Cape Blanco, yet spacial and
temporal coverage on these conditions is low and short-lived. As we
enter the weekend, conditions in all the coastal waters will become
warrant a small craft advisory. A gale warning in the southern
waters could possibly return Sunday morning with areas of probable
(40-70%) gusts over 55mph. Next week, a northwesterly swell around
5ft and a southerly 2ft swell will enter the coastal waters, in turn
changing the current wind-wave-driven conditions we`ve experienced
so far this week into a more dynamic maritime environment.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT
     Monday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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