109
AXPZ20 KNHC 182326 AAA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2326 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024

Updated convection under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One) over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico as of 21Z continues to sustain convergent
monsoonal winds and draw abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean
into the coastal terrain of southern Mexico and into the northern
sections of Central America. This can cause life-threatening
conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Areas expecting
the heaviest rainfall through Fri continue to be over the western
portion of Nicaragua, over western Honduras and far western
Nicaragua, over most of El Salvador and over southern Mexico.
Additionally, dangerous surf conditions will impact these coastal
areas through the next few days. Please refer to your local
meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more
detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from just offshore the southeast
part of the Mexican state of Guerrero near 16N99W southwestward
to 10N120W to 06N130W and to 06N140W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 99W
and 100W, from 10N to 13N between 103W and 107W, within 60 nm of
the trough between 118W and 124W and within 30 nm of the trough
between 124W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special
Features section continues to sustain fresh to strong southwest
to west winds and 8 to 11 ft seas over the offshore waters of
Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Meanwhile, moderate
to fresh northwest winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in lingering
northwest west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate west
to northwest winds along with 6 to 7 ft seas are near Baja
California Sur. Slightly higher seas of 7 to 9 ft due to
southwest to west swell are offshore central Mexico. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft are present
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough
to very rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico
through Fri morning, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and
southeastern Guerrero States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Lingering
northwest swell over these waters, mainly north of Cabo San
Lazaro will gradually subside through tonight. From Tue evening
through Fri morning, fresh to strong northwest winds and rough
seas should develop near Baja California Sur, including the
waters near Cabo San Lucas as pressure gradient increases.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event affecting the northern sections of Central
America.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special
Features section is sustaining fresh to strong southwest to
west winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of
Guatemala and 7 to 9 ft seas over the offshore waters of El
Salvador. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are over
the rest of the Central America waters. Gentle to moderate
southwest winds are over the offshore waters of Colombia. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft in southwest to west swell over the rest of the
Central American waters and 5 to 7 ft over the offshore waters
of Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are over the
offshore waters of Colombia and waters near the Galapagos
Islands. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft in south to
southwest swell.

The fresh to strong southwest to west winds are converging toward
the Central American coast, and with a substantial amount of
atmospheric moisture, this is sustaining scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters from
northern Nicaragua to Guatemala.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough
to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of northern
Central America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther
south, rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will
continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador
through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high
that is northeast of Hawaii to west of Baja California Sur near
20N119W. The associated gradient is supporting moderate to fresh
north to northeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 24N
west of about 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south
of the monsoon trough east of 128W. The latest ASCAT satellite
data passes over this part of the area depict these winds. Seas
with these winds are 6 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite
data passes.

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected through
the end of the week. The gentle to moderate southerly winds
south of the monsoon trough are expected to increase to fresh
to strong speeds, primarily east of about 109W starting late on
Wed along with seas building to 7 to 10 ft.

$$
Aguirre