697
AXPZ20 KNHC 221605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N95W to 10N115W to 09N130W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough
between 97W and 101W, within 60 nm south of the trough between
115W and 120W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 136W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An overnight altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of 8 to 10
ft offshore of Oaxaca in southern Mexico, beyond 90 nm from the
coast. These combined seas are mostly due to long-period
southwest swell lingering from southwest fresh to strong winds of
the past few days. Deep-layer moisture remains abundant over the
area, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
coasts of the states of Guerrero and northern Michoacan. This
activity reaches offshore for about 120 nm.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong that moved offshore Mexican
coast during the overnight hours is weakening as it moves
northwestward just offshore the coast between 17N and Manzanillo
extending offshore for about 120 nm.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to improve
today off the southern Mexico offshore waters. To the north,
fresh northwest winds and rough seas are expected over the Baja
California offshore waters through tonight. Conditions across the
Mexico offshore waters will improve through the early part of
next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The broad low pressure over northern Central America has
weakened and shifted northward, allowing winds and seas to
diminish across the region. Seas to 8 ft persist in the offshore
waters of Guatemala beyond 90 nm, associated with lingering SW
swell caused by persistent fresh to strong SW winds. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and mostly moderate combined seas
persists.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft will linger off Guatemala today,
then subside. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
wave heights will persist elsewhere across the region through the
early part of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends from strong high pressure of 1029
mb that is located well NW of the area near 35N154W, southeastward
to the Baja California offshore waters. The associated gradient
is supporting generally gentle to moderate north to northeast
winds west of about 110W, except for slightly higher fresh
northeast north of 22N west of 137W as seen in overnight ASCAT
satellite data passes over that part of the area. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher
seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 22N west of 137W. Gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds are south of 04N between 83W and 100W,
and mostly gently south to southwest winds are elsewhere south of
the monsoon trough and mostly gentle east to southeast are south
of the ITCZ. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft, except for
seas of 7 to 9 ft in long-period southwest swell south of the
monsoon trough to 07N between 95W and 107W.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 110W and
north of 05N will gradually decrease today. Otherwise, little
overall changes are expected through early next week.

$$
Aguirre