672
AXPZ20 KNHC 240354
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropcial wave is along 84W reaching southward from
Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific to near 04N. It is moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is active from 09N to 11N between 85W and 90W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N95W to 10N120W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is active from 09N to 11N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate
08N to 12N between 110W and 115W, and from 06N to 07N between
130W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak trough located west of Baja California is analyzed from
near 30N117W to 24N122W. This features is helping to maintain a
relatively weak pressure gradient across the Mexican offshore
waters that supports gentle to moderate breezes over the region.
Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters. Seas are 1 to 3
ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the relatively weak gradient over the area
will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through the
middle of next week. Winds will become west to northwest at fresh
to strong speeds just offshore Cabo San Lucas starting Mon night
and continuing well into the upcoming week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the
offshore waters of Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua ahead of the
approaching tropical wave, as deep atmospheric moisture remains
present over this part of the eastern Pacific along with the
favorable factor of diffluent flow aloft helping to sustain it.

For the forecast, the rather weak pressure pattern over the
region will continue through the middle of next week and will
support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate wave heights.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1029 mb high pressure well
north-northeast of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident west of
about 125W as seen in the latest available altimeter satellite
passes over that part of the area. The altimeter data shows
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 24N and west of
126W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted east of 125W. An area
of 8 ft seas primarily due to southeast long-period southeast to
south swell, and to some extent wind waves from persistent fresh
southeast winds is present over the central part of the area
from 03N to 09N between 108W and 122W. Gentle to moderate
breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the seas to 8 ft are forecast to subside
on Mon. Otherwise, little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen