474
AXPZ20 KNHC 242149
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants of John are centered near 17.7N 100.6W at 24/1800 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring up to
250 NM south of the center of the remnants. The low-level center
of John has dissipated, and the system is no longer a tropical
cyclone. However, an elongated trough partly associated with
John`s remnants appears to be forming off the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico. Regardless of whether or not John re-
forms or a new system develops, heavy rainfall with the potential
for significant flooding is likely during the next several days
over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, especially in
areas of high terrain. Through Thursday, the remnants of John are
expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals
around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas
along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10
and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be
expected through Thursday. Swells associated with John are
forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico
during the next day or so, with the potential for dangerous surf
and rip currents.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
John NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A Central American Gyre will continue to produce periods of
excessive rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America for
the remainder of the week, as well as the adjacent western
Caribbean and eastern Pacific waters between 80W and 95W. This
scenario, combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting,
could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the
area. Furthermore, strong to near gale force winds, rough seas
and heavy thunderstorms are forecast to affect the offshore
waters between Costa Rica and Guatemala through the end of the
week. Please follow the forecasts from your local weather offices
for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the 1004 mb remnants of
John to 13N112W to 12N125W. The ITCZ then extends from 12N125W to
10N140W. Aside from convection related to John and the Central
American Gyre, scattered moderate convection is occurring from
11N to 14N between 113W and 121W, and from 08N to 11N between
132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on the Remnants of John and on the Central American
Gyre (CAG).

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 34N143W, a trough
extends through Baja California into western Mexico, and the
remnants of John are centered over Guerrero. Recent scatterometer
satellite data reveal gentle to moderate NW winds in the Mexico
offshore waters and light to gentle winds in the Gulf of
California. Seas of 4-5 ft are noted in the offshore waters, with
1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Farther south, fresh to strong
W to SW winds, with locally near gale force winds, are occurring
along the outer periphery of the remnants of John, generally
south of 16N and between 97W and 105W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are
likely occurring in this area, with locally higher seas up to 14
ft in the area of strongest winds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong W to SW winds will continue
through Fri, mainly south of 16N between 95W and 105W. Winds will
slowly diminish below strong speeds on Sat, and diminish further
on Sun. Periods of near gale force winds will be possible today
through Thu. Rough to locally very rough seas are expected off
the coast of Guerrero through Oaxaca through at least Fri, before
slowly subsiding this weekend into early next week. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas will occur
across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters through this
weekend, with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico, where winds
will remain light to gentle.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on the Central American Gyre (CAG).

Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring over the offshore
waters of Central America, while moderate SW winds are noted off
the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are
occurring off the coast of Guatemala southeastward toward
Nicaragua, while the rest of the offshore waters are likely
seeing seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted north of 05N and east of 94W to the coast of Central
America. Strong winds and rough seas will occur near convection.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue in
the wake of the remnants of John off the coast of Guatemala
southeastward toward Nicaragua through at least Wed night, with
moderate to fresh winds continuing near Guatemala into Fri.
Rough seas will also occur in this region, with seas slowly
subsiding in the coastal waters off of Nicaragua by Wed night,
and off the coast of Guatemala late Fri through Sat. Periods of
strong convection will also occur over most of the Central
America offshore waters through the rest of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas continue north of 08N
and east of 115N. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW winds
are occurring south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 13N east of
130W. North of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate N to NE
winds prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue in
the wake of the remnants of John north of 09N and east of 115W
through Fri, with winds slowly diminishing through this weekend.
Near gale force winds will be possible tonight into Thu east of
105W. Rough to locally very rough seas will also occur in this
area, subsiding late this weekend into early next week.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue south of the
monsoon trough through late week.

$$
ADAMS