442
AXPZ20 KNHC 142111
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: A Central American Gyre
(CAG) is rapidly developing, with heavy rainfall already
occurring. The persistent moist onshore flow over portions of
Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras, and El Salvador will favor days of
intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation through the weekend.
Excessive rainfall is also expected over Costa Rica and Panama
through Sunday, producing 8-12 inches of rain across these
areas. This rainfall event will cause very hazardous conditions
to the region. This scenario is common during the developing of
La Nina. Please refer to your local meteorological office
bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N93W to 16N111W to 07N122W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N122W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N
and E of 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure is centered well NE of the area near
36N141W and extends a ridge SE across the Baja California
offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this high and
lower pressure over Mexico is causing moderate to fresh winds
across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San
Lazaro. South of Cabo San Lazaro, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within NW swell across the region.
In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, and seas
range 2 to 4 ft. Gentle winds prevail over the SW Mexico
offshore waters with seas 4 to 5 ft within SW swell. Across the
southern Mexico offshore waters, the monsoon trough has lifted
north around 16N, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft. Thunderstorms are also occurring in this area,
which are capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty
winds. Across most of the Mexico offshore waters, smoke from
agricultural fires may be restricting visibility somewhat over
area waters.

For the forecast, fresh winds will persist across the Baja
California offshore waters through early next week. NW swell will
move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters, with seas
building 8 to 11 ft through the weekend and into early next week
north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are expected to peak north of
Punta Eugenia on Mon. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico,
will continue producing shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable, and
development of this system is not expected. This system has a low
chance of formation over the next 7 days. Despite of its
development, strong winds are expected near the Tehuantepec
region with seas peaking to 12 ft beginning on Sunday and
continuing through early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central
American Gyre.

With the monsoon trough displaced farther north than usual, this
is bringing moderate to fresh winds across the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Some areas are experiencing strong
to pulsing near gale-force winds where the stronger
thunderstorms are located. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in S to SW swell.
In the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters, winds are
gentle to moderate with 4 to 5 ft seas within SW swell.

For the forecast, an increase in winds, rough seas and
widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the area this
weekend. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles SW of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to
remain unfavorable, and development of this system is not
expected. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected
to impact Central America through the weekend. Fresh to strong
winds will shift to the Gulf of Panama tonight into Sat with
rough seas. By Sun, these conditions are expected to develop
across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua.
Meanwhile, seas are expected to build to 8 ft near the Galapagos
Islands through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure near 36N141W. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across waters W of 110W and seas are 5
to 8 ft. East of 110W, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted
from the monsoon trough from 12N to 05N. Seas are 8 to 9 ft near
the stronger winds. Elsewhere, seas range 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are
likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next
week. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft by Sun night into Mon. SW
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to continue tonight
between 90W and 115W, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds
and seas are likely to return there by the end of the weekend
into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near the monsoon
trough and east of 110W or so through the next couple of days.
Seas to 8 ft will hover around 03S near the Galapagos Islands
through the weekend.

$$
ERA