Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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728 AXPZ20 KNHC 210911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in northern Central America and the Mexican State of Chiapas: The broad circulation associated with the remnants of Alberto is expected to produce additional heavy rainfall amounts across the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador,western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy rainfall can cause life- threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue through this evening. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N94W to 11N110W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 12N between 95W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Scattered showers associated with the remnants of Alberto are emerging off the coast of Sinaloa into the southern Gulf of California. This feature is likely contained to the mid levels of the atmosphere, and while no clear low pressure is evident at the surface, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SW winds off the coast of southern Sinaloa. This area of showers is along a deep trough reaching from the lower Colorado River Valley, across the length of the Gulf of California, then farther to the southeast into central Mexico. The gradient between the trough and higher pressure farther west of the eastern Pacific is supporting fresh to strong NW off Baja California, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Concurrent altimeter data indicated combined seas of 6 to 8 ft off Baja California. Farther south, recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas persist across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. In addition, strong gusts and frequent lightning may accompany clusters of thunderstorms in this area. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters through today, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region through this evening. To the north, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are expected near Baja California Sur, including the waters near Cabo San Lucas through this morning due to tighter pressure gradient. Conditions across the Mexico offshore waters will improve this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate SW winds along with seas at 5 to 7 ft within S swell are noted across the rest of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua through late today. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until this evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend. Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters from a 1029 mb high pressure centered NW of the area near 35N150W. The associated gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. East of 115W and north of 08N, fresh to strong SW to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are present. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell dominate. For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and north of 06N will gradually decrease through tonight into Sat. Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next week. $$ Christensen