Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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198 AXPZ20 KNHC 200355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Mexican State of Chiapas and Central America Heavy Rainfall: The broad wind field of Tropical Storm Alberto southeast of Tampico, Mexico continues to draw abundant moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain Mexican State of Chiapas and northern sections of Central America. This can still cause life-threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest rainfall through Fri evening are far southeastern Guatemala, El Salvador, southwestern Honduras, far western Nicaragua. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from just offshore the Mexican state of Oaxaca through 13N115W to 09N125W. An ITCZ continues from 09N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the trough north of 08N between 89W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is near the rest of the trough and ITCZ from 08N to 12N between 100W and 125W, and from 04N to 07N west of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds continue to feed toward the broad circulation of Tropical Storm Alberto currently located southeast of Tampico, Mexico. These persistent winds have produced seas in the range of 9 to 12 ft across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Earlier today, a couple of ship observations located near 15N99W and 14N96W reported SW to W 20 to 25 kt winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate W to NW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NW well persist west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas are over the offshore waters of central Mexico and the rest of southern Mexico, including waters near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft dominate the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will continue to impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri, primarily off Chiapas and southeastern Oaxaca States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. From later tonight through Fri morning, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are expected near Baja California Sur, including the waters near Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes as pressure gradient increases. During the weekend, fresh to strong southerly winds might develop at the northern Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Convergent southwest to west winds along with abundant tropical moisture are resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional convection in the region. The broad wind field of Tropical Storm Alberto southeast of Tampico, Mexico continues to pull in fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the rest of the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft persist off Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large southerly swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend. Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft from 07N to 24N west of 131W, and fresh NW to N winds north of 28N between 119W and 125W along with seas of 6 to 7 ft. For the remainder of the waters north of 10N and waters near the ITCZ, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. Near the monsoon trough east of about 120W, mostly moderate S to SW winds are present, except for fresh to strong SW winds east of 109W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft east of 109W. West of 120W, generally gentle to moderate SE winds are present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast, little overall changes are expected going into the early part of the weekend. The fresh to strong southwest to west winds and very rough seas south of the monsoon trough are expected to decrease on Fri. $$ Chan