858
AXPZ20 KNHC 220331
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N95W to 11N100W to 09N130W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 09N to 10N between 96W and 99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

SW swell of 7 to 9 ft persists in the offshore waters of Oaxaca
related to persistent winds that have persisted across the region
over the past week. The winds are diminishing, but the large
swell will persist through the overnight hours. Farther north,
moderate to fresh NW winds are evident along with 6 to 8 ft in NW
swell. Deep layer moisture remains abundant over the area,
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coasts
of Michoacan and Guerrero states.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to improve
through tonight off the southern Mexico offshore waters. Fresh
winds will diminish by tonight and rough seas are expected to
subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Scattered heavy showers and
strong thunderstorms and dangerous surf will continue to impact
the southern Mexico offshore waters through this evening,
primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. To the north, fresh NW winds
and rough seas are expected over the Baja California offshore
waters through tonight. Conditions across the Mexico offshore
waters will improve this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Seas to 9 ft persist in the offshore waters of Guatemala beyond
90 nm, associated with lingering SW swell caused by persistent
fresh to strong SW winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
mostly moderate combined seas persists.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to improve
through tonight off the southern Mexico offshore waters. Fresh
winds will diminish by tonight and rough seas are expected to
subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. To the north, fresh NW winds
and rough seas are expected over the Baja California offshore
waters through tonight. Conditions across the Mexico offshore
waters will improve through the early part of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja
California offshore waters from a 1030 mb high pressure centered
NW of the area near 35N152W. This pattern is supporting moderate
N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft west of 110W. Moderate to locally
fresh SW winds continue from 05N to 15N between 90W and 110W,
with combined seas of 8 to 10 ft in SW swell. Moderate SE to S
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 110W.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 110W and
north of 05N will gradually decrease through tonight into Sat.
Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next
week.

$$
Christensen