491
AXPZ20 KNHC 212147
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in northern Central America and the Mexican State
of Chiapas:
The broad circulation associated with the remnants of Alberto is
expected to produce additional heavy rainfall across the Pacific
coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador,
western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy rainfall can
cause life- threatening conditions that include flooding and
mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue through this
evening. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency
management office bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 15N96W to 10N115W to 09N126W. The ITCZ extends from
09N126W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 90W and 101W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between
109W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Scattered showers associated with the remnants of Alberto are
emerging off the coast of Sinaloa into the southern Gulf of
California and the Baja California Sur offshore waters.
Meanwhile, latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW
winds prevailing across the Baja California offshore water. Seas
range 6 to 8 ft within NW swell.

Farther south, moderate to locally fresh SW winds are likely
occurring in the southern Mexico offshore waters, particularly
off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Seas continue to be rough and range 8 to
9 ft. This is where showers and thunderstorms are still
occurring. Across the rest of the southern and southwest Mexico
offshore waters, winds are light to gentle with seas 4 to 7 ft.
Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft dominate the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to improve
through tonight off the southern Mexico offshore waters. Fresh
winds will diminish by tonight and rough seas are expected to
subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Scattered heavy showers and
strong thunderstorms and dangerous surf will continue to impact
the southern Mexico offshore waters through this evening,
primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. To the north, fresh NW winds
and rough seas are expected over the Baja California offshore
waters through tonight. Conditions across the Mexico offshore
waters will improve this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Moderate to locally fresh SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas continue across the offshore waters of Guatemala El
Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate SW winds along with
seas at 5 to 7 ft within S swell are noted across the rest of the
Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Farther south,
gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate
southerly swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to improve today and
into tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds off the Central
American offshore waters will diminish by this evening, and seas
will subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms as well as dangerous surf will persist across the
offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and northwestern
Nicaragua through tonight. Meanwhile, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama
into the weekend. Farther south, moderate to rough seas in
moderate southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands
and offshore of Ecuador into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja
California offshore waters from a 1030 mb high pressure centered
NW of the area near 36N153W. The latest scatterometer data show
that the associated gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N
to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of ITCZ and monsoon
trough and west of 115W. East of 115W and north of 05N, fresh SW
to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present. South
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell dominate.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and
north of 06N will gradually decrease through tonight into Sat.
Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next
week.

$$
AReinhart