198
AXPZ20 KNHC 200355
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Mexican State of Chiapas and Central America Heavy Rainfall:
The broad wind field of Tropical Storm Alberto southeast of
Tampico, Mexico continues to draw abundant moisture from the
eastern Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain Mexican State of
Chiapas and northern sections of Central America. This can still
cause life-threatening conditions that include flooding and
mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest rainfall through Fri
evening are far southeastern Guatemala, El Salvador, southwestern
Honduras, far western Nicaragua. Please refer to your local
meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more
detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from just offshore
the Mexican state of Oaxaca through 13N115W to 09N125W. An ITCZ
continues from 09N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is near the trough north of 08N
between 89W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is near the
rest of the trough and ITCZ from 08N to 12N between 100W and
125W, and from 04N to 07N west of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds continue to feed
toward the broad circulation of Tropical Storm Alberto currently
located southeast of Tampico, Mexico. These persistent winds
have produced seas in the range of 9 to 12 ft across the offshore
waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Earlier
today, a couple of ship observations located near 15N99W and
14N96W reported SW to W 20 to 25 kt winds and seas of 8 to 11
ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate W to NW winds along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NW well persist west of Baja California
and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh W to
NW winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas are over the offshore waters
of central Mexico and the rest of southern Mexico, including
waters near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle with locally moderate
southerly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft dominate the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will continue to impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico
through Fri, primarily off Chiapas and southeastern Oaxaca
States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal
areas of this region until Fri evening. From later tonight
through Fri morning, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are
expected near Baja California Sur, including the waters near Cabo
San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes as pressure gradient increases.
During the weekend, fresh to strong southerly winds might develop
at the northern Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Convergent southwest to west winds along with abundant tropical
moisture are resulting in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama.
Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional
convection in the region.

The broad wind field of Tropical Storm Alberto southeast of
Tampico, Mexico continues to pull in fresh to strong SW to W
winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds
along with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the rest of the Central
America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft persist off Colombia. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large southerly
swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador
and northwestern Nicaragua through Fri. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri
evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend.
Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate to large
southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and
offshore of Ecuador into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii
to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
from 07N to 24N west of 131W, and fresh NW to N winds north of
28N between 119W and 125W along with seas of 6 to 7 ft. For the
remainder of the waters north of 10N and waters near the ITCZ,
light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. Near the
monsoon trough east of about 120W, mostly moderate S to SW winds
are present, except for fresh to strong SW winds east of 109W.
Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6
to 9 ft east of 109W. West of 120W, generally gentle to moderate
SE winds are present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along
with seas of 5 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected going
into the early part of the weekend. The fresh to strong southwest
to west winds and very rough seas south of the monsoon trough
are expected to decrease on Fri.

$$

Chan