478
AXPZ20 KNHC 211538
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in northern Central America and the Mexican State
of Chiapas:
The broad circulation associated with the remnants of Alberto is
expected to produce additional heavy rainfall amounts across the
Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El
Salvador, western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy
rainfall can cause life- threatening conditions that include
flooding and mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue
through this evening. Please refer to your local meteorological
and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N95W to 11N110W to 10N125W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between
88W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
10N between 116W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Scattered showers associated with the remnants of Alberto are
emerging off the coast of Sinaloa into the southern Gulf of
California and the Baja California Sur offshore waters. This
feature is likely contained to the mid levels of the atmosphere.
This area of showers is along a deep trough reaching from the
lower Colorado River Valley, across the length of the Gulf of
California, then farther to the southeast into central Mexico.

The gradient between the trough and higher pressure farther west
of the eastern Pacific is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds
across the off Baja California offshore waters. Seas range 6 to 8
ft within NW swell.

Farther south, moderate to locally fresh SW winds are likely
occurring in the southern Mexico offshore waters, particularly
off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Seas continue to be rough and range 8 to
10 ft. This is where showers and thunderstorms are still
occurring. Across the rest of the southern and southwest Mexico
offshore waters, winds are light to gentle with seas 4 to 7 ft.
Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft dominate the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to improve today off
the southern Mexico offshore waters. Fresh winds will diminish
by tonight and rough seas are expected to subside below 8 ft by
Sat morning. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters
through today, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Dangerous surf
is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region
through this evening. To the north, fresh NW winds and rough seas
are expected over the Baja California offshore waters through
tonight. Conditions across the Mexico offshore waters will
improve this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Fresh SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 10 ft seas continue
across the offshore waters of Guatemala El Salvador and Nicaragua.
Gentle to moderate SW winds along with seas at 5 to 7 ft within
S swell are noted across the rest of the Central America and
Colombia offshore waters. Farther south, gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell
exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to improve today and
into tonight. Fresh winds off the Central American offshore
waters will diminish by this evening, and seas will subside below
8 ft by Sat morning. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms as
well as dangerous surf will persist across the offshore waters
of Guatemala, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua through late
today. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend.
Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell
will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador
into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja
California offshore waters from a 1029 mb high pressure centered
NW of the area near 36N150W. The associated gradient is
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
north of ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. East of 110W
and north of 04N, fresh  SW to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8
to 10 ft are present. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough,
gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate
southerly swell dominate.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and
north of 06N will gradually decrease through tonight into Sat.
Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next
week.

$$
AReinhart